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June 02, 2022

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Holy cow that creek rose quite a bit. Having been there just a couple of weeks ago, and walking the creek edge, I can more fully appreciate how high that really is.

Glad you didn't have to evacuate, but sorry that it cost you sleep.

Amazingly enough, Bogie, our worst flooding was in 2016 when I thought that we had had only 2-3 inches of rain. So much for my memory! I did remember correctly that the water had come to within 15-20 feet of the patio.

I just looked back on my blog postings. I feel much less threatened by current conditions, now. On 8/20/2016 I wrote that we had had 8" of rain in 3 hours at Enough, already!. In it, I reference We set a new high and The great flood of July 3, 2016.

If you compare the photos of this past week's flooding to the 2016 flooding, please keep three things in mind: 1) The wooden fence in 2016 did not extend nearly as far toward the creek as does the current fence, 2) the 4x4 post that is nearly underwater was the 2nd post that I had installed for a 2nd bluebird nesting box and it was out at the edge of the woods, and 3) the current (only remaining) 4x4 post is about 15-20 feet nearer the patio than was the old one at a similar position.

Glad you didn't have to evacuate. When water starts rising it can really be fast I discovered in Arizona when we had what they called a 100 year event. I saw water in our backyard approaching our patio. Suddenly it was up over the patio, then coming in the patio door. After we moved to Calif. they had a couple more so-called 100 year events with water racing down Camelback Mtn. in Scottsdale.

Joared--Thanks for the good thoughts. Sorry to hear that you had water invade your living space. Not good.

Yes, being aware of how quickly water levels can rise is crucial to safety for those of us who choose to live in/near flood plains. One-hundred-year flooding, now, is not what it used to be before climate change became more and more a factor. Too, many of us don't have a real understanding of statistical methods, so don't have an intuitive feel for what terminology means. (I took but one course in statistics - in about 1963 or so, in grad school - so I've forgotten what I learned.) I trust that you retain much more of your wide-ranging education and don't need any help!

Hunky Husband and I attended U of Missouri School of Mines & Metallurgy which had a strong connection to the local USGS (United States Geological Survey) office, so I grew confident in that organization. The USGS website is one that I often visit to remind myself/find updates to geological terminology and information. Presently, that website includes the following.

"...The term "100-year flood" is used in an attempt to simplify the definition of a flood that statistically has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year. Likewise, the term "100-year storm" is used to define a rainfall event that statistically has this same 1-percent chance of occurring. In other words, over the course of 1 million years, these events would be expected to occur 10,000 times. But just because it rained 10 inches in one day last year doesn't mean it can't rain 10 inches in one day again this year."

Interesting, cause i though that flooding repeating itself so soon, not just once but twice unusual. As for what I retain from my earlier education, I’m not so confident. I, too, had a statistics class but probably only the basics remain at best.

I get confused among the years, but I'm confident that there was at least one year during which we had repeated flooding (3 or 4 inundations) during a 1- or 2-week period. Once the soil is completely saturated, it doesn't take much additional rain to tip the scales. I don't know how often this area flooded before we darned humans built all of our houses along the creek. I do recall how the section of the creek for a mile or so down creek from us was treated to a tree removal program about 40-50 years ago to allow faster drainage/reduced flooding. It really upset folks to have the old trees taken out. In our section of the creek, every time it has flooded, erosion has taken away a tree or two. The other day, while surveying my queendom in the pre-dawn darkness, I heard at least one tree coming down - just upstream of us.

Wish we could get some of that water into the Colorado River to serve Southern California so they would not need so much from Nor Cal.

Ingineer--I'm a bit fuzzy on the details, but I think the Colorado River was the river involved in a lawsuit that Kansas won a few years ago to get payback for water that had been illegally diverted/used in some way. I think that the Colorado River is actually the source of the Arkansas River that runs within a couple of miles of us. You guys really, really need all of the water (well...I should be careful what I wish for you!) that you can get.

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