World's Energy Watchdog Warns Current Energy Trends are "Patently Unsustainable"Highlights from the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2008
"The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically, socially. But that can - and must - be altered; there's still time to change the road we're on.
It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution."
This kind of stark warning may be nothing new if you're used to reports from folks like Greenpeace or even the IPCC. But the language in this IEA report stands in starkcontrast to the tone of past agency reports, which tend to range from "bland-to-cornucopian," as Oil Drum blogger Nate Hagens aptly puts it.
November 12, 2008 6:16 AM PSTIEA: World's energy use is 'patently unsustainable'
The International Energy Agency raised the alarm Wednesday with the release of its annual report, emphasizing that a revolution in the energy business is required to maintain economic growth and stabilize greenhouse gas emissions.
The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2008 report, written for policymakers, paints a troubling picture in terms of energy costs and global warming due to burning fossil fuels. It calls for "radical action" from governments at all levels and for a coordinated international response.
"Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable--environmentally, economically and socially--they can and must be altered," Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's executive director, said at the release of the report.
Although softening demand has pushed the price for oil down recently, the rising cost of extraction, combined with declining productivity rates at oil fields, means that the "era of cheap oil is over," according to the report.
The IEA's annual report forecasts that energy demand will spike in the next two decades, driven in large part by fast-growing India and China. OECD refers to the 30 developed nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
(Credit: IEA)
The study also lays outs the changes needed to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and concludes that massive amounts of capital will be required.
To limit the increase in temperatures to 3 degrees Celsius by 2030 would require a huge increase of low-carbon energy--nuclear, hydropower, biomass, renewables, and underground carbon storage. That scenario would require a $4.1 trillion investment, or 0.2 percent of the world's annual GDP.
From the report's executive summary:
"It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient, and environmentally benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution."
The IEA's call to action to policymakers reemphasizes the long-term trends that many clean-technology businesses are already betting on. Even with the credit crunch and falling prices for fossil fuels, clean-energy investors and entrepreneurs predict positive growth in their sector over the long term.
In the U.S., the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama and a Democrat-controlled Congress bode well for policies that promote clean technologies to address economic development and climate change.
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Martin LaMonica is a senior writer for CNET's Green Tech blog. He started at CNET News in 2002, covering IT and Web development. Before that, he was executive editor at IT publication InfoWorld. E-mail Martin.
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This is all very scary. I pray for those folks that are freezing right now. I'd be burning the furniture.
Posted by: janeywan | December 14, 2008 at 12:58 PM
It's a big concern. If we had begun dealing with in the '70s where we had to wait in line to buy gasoline, we might've had a chance but oh no, we don't have to and so we didn't. Even things like population growth have been talked about for years but who paid attention? The very ones who were taking care of their own lives. Some countries still only value big families. It's very scary where it's heading.
Posted by: Rain | December 14, 2008 at 04:59 PM
Janeywan--The cold weather seems to be quite wide-spread. Bogie (link in left sidebar), in NH, has posted that she and her Wonderful Spouse are doing fine without electricity. They have a wood stove and LPG, so the only problems they have are the exercise they get carrying wood and switching coolers of food about to keep it cold, but not freezing, and not being able to use the washing machine.
I hurriedly went out for a bike ride, Sunday morning, despite the 30 mph wind because the temperature was at 54 degrees. I was out for 35-40 minutes. Another 30 minutes later, the temperature had started to drop. An hour after my return, the temperature was down to 21 degrees and continuing its drop. It didn't take long to get down to 7 degrees. I'm pretty sure that it didn't get up to 20 degrees, yesterday; but, believe we are to be above freezing at some point, today (11 degrees, now). Fortunately, the ground is cold enough that the snow we got last night did not melt, so there is no layer of ice underneath it.
I tried to post, Sunday; but, as Naomi Dagen Bloom said in a comment on Ronni's blog, TypePad was Wonky, so I gave up.
Rain--Isn't it amazing how no one talks about the 800-pound gorilla in the room, the high esteem in which people seem to hold fecundity? Hunters use deer over-population as an excuse for reducing their numbers with bullets, saying that it is better than having the deer die from disease or hunger; but, no one dares whisper about human over-population. Or...maybe that is what our national government has in mind when it starts or enters into wars. Surely the wars are adding to the pollution and energy consumption problems that plague us.
Posted by: Cop Car | December 16, 2008 at 07:48 AM